Policy Interventions, Social Distancing, and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the United States: A Retrospective State-level Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay-at-home orders and school closures have been employed to limit the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study measures the impact of social distancing policies on COVID-19 transmission in US states during the early outbreak phase to assess which policies were most effective. METHODS: To measure transmissibility, we analyze the average effective reproductive number (Rt) in each state the week following its 500th case and doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases. Linear and logistic regressions were performed to assess the impact of various NPIs while controlling for population density, GDP, and certain health metrics. This analysis was repeated for deaths with doubling time to 100 deaths with several healthcare infrastructure control variables. RESULTS: States with stay-at-home orders in place at the time of their 500th case were associated with lower average Rt the following week compared to states without them (p<0.001) and significantly less likely to have an Rt>1 (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.01-0.37, p = 0.004). These states also experienced longer doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17-0.72, p = 0.004). States in the highest quartile of average time spent at home were also slower to reach 1000 cases than those in the lowest quartile (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06-0.53, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Stay-at-home orders had the largest effect of any policy analyzed. Multivariate analyses with cellphone tracking data suggest social distancing adherence drives these effects. States that plan to scale back such measures should carefully monitor transmission metrics.

The Resilient Child: Sex-Steroid Hormones and COVID-19 Incidence in Pediatric Patients.

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), a disease caused by Severe Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, has become an unprecedented global health emergency, with fatal outcomes among adults of all ages in the United States, and the highest incidence and mortality in adult men. As the pandemic evolves there is limited understanding of a potential association between symptomatic viral infection and age. To date, there is no knowledge of the role children (prepubescent, ages 9-13 years) play as "silent" vectors of the virus, with themselves being asymptomatic. Throughout different time frames and geographic locations, the current evidence on COVID-19 suggests that children are becoming infected at a significantly lower rate than other age groups-as low as 1%. Androgens upregulate the protease TMPRSS2 (type II transmembrane serine protease-2), which facilitates efficient virus-host cell fusion with the epithelium of the lungs, thus increasing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and development of severe COVID-19. Owing to low levels of steroid hormones, prepubertal children may have low expression of TMPRSS2, thereby limiting the viral entry into host cells. As the world anticipates a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the role of prepubescent children as vectors transmitting the virus must be interrogated to prepare for a potential resurgence of COVID-19. This review discusses the current evidence on the low incidence of COVID-19 in children and the effect of sex-steroid hormones on SARS-CoV-2 viral infection and clinical outcomes of pediatric patients. On reopening society at large, schools will need to implement heightened health protocols with the knowledge that children as the "silent" viral transmitters can significantly affect the adult populations.

Multivariate Analysis of Black Race and Environmental Temperature on COVID-19 in the US.

BACKGROUND: There has been much interest in environmental temperature and race as modulators of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) infection and mortality. However, in the United States race and temperature correlate with various other social determinants of health, comorbidities, and environmental influences that could be responsible for noted effects. This study investigates the independent effects of race and environmental temperature on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in United States counties. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 and risk factors in all United States counties was collected. 661 counties with at least 50 COVID-19 cases and 217 with at least 10 deaths were included in analyses. Upper and lower quartiles for cases/100,000 people and halves for deaths/100,000 people were compared with t-tests. Adjusted linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent effects of race and environmental temperature. RESULTS: Multivariate regression analyses demonstrated Black race is a risk factor for increased COVID-19 cases (OR=1.22, 95% CI: 1.09-1.40, P=0.001) and deaths independent of comorbidities, poverty, access to health care, and other risk factors. Higher environmental temperature independently reduced caseload (OR=0.81, 95% CI: 0.71-0.91, P=0.0009), but not deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Higher environmental temperatures correlated with reduced COVID-19 cases, but this benefit does not yet appear in mortality models. Black race was an independent risk factor for increased COVID-19 cases and deaths. Thus, many proposed mechanisms through which Black race might increase risk for COVID-19, such as socioeconomic and healthcare-related predispositions, are inadequate in explaining the full magnitude of this health disparity.